Japan Cup - Final Field Analysis
- The AntePoster (H)
- Nov 21, 2024
- 11 min read
NOTE: ALL BOOKMAKERS ARE NOW "NON-RUNNER NO BET" SO THIS RACE NO LONGER CARRIES ANTEPOST RISK
CERVINIA (Tr. T Kimura) | Last 5 runs: 11-011 | Draw: 9 of 14
Three-year-old daughter of Harbinger who has risen right to the very top this season. Disappointed in the Oko Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) behind Stellenbosch at Hanshin back in April (finished 13th of 18, beaten just over 7 lengths), but duly delivered the promise of her pedigree when besting that rival by half a length when upped to 12 furlongs in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) at Tokyo in May. Even more impressive a month ago in the Shuka Sho over 10 furlongs at Kyoto (beating Bond Girl 1.75 lengths, Stellenbosch a further length back in third), confirming that she is a filly in raging form right now. However, this filly has yet to contest an all-age and all-gender race, and only two horses with so few runs under their belts have been successful in this event, so faces a daunting task.
Betting observations An in-form, three-year-old filly getting all the weight allowances is a dangerous proposition when the biggest autumn prizes in any racing jurisdiction come around, and Cervinia very much fits that mould. But this filly now heads the market and doesn’t look a good bet given that these are by far the deepest waters she has ever ventured into.
DO DEUCE (Tr. Y Tomomichi) | Last 5 runs: 41-561 | Draw: 3 of 14
This five-year-old son of Heart’s Cry looked to have the world as his feet in May 2022 when just getting the better of Equinox to win the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), the pair clear of the field. This prompted connections to go bold and target their three-year-old at the Arc de Triomphe, but soft ground proved no good to him in France either in his prep run in the Prix Niel (fourth of seven, beaten almost 4 lengths) or the Arc itself (19th of 20, beaten 42 lengths). At first glance he looks to have a rather chequered CV since, but there were decent excuses for his runs two and three back (5th of 16 in Dubai Turf over an insufficient nine furlongs in March this year after being trapped behind a wall of horses, 6th of 13 when 13/1 favourite in the Takarazuka Kinen over 11 furlongs, but ground was yielding), and his win last time out in the Autumn Tenno Sho was little short of sensational – settled in rear behind a relatively slow pace, he finished off with dazzling yet sustained sectionals to mow down his rivals with something to spare. If he repeats that form and the ground is riding fast by Sunday (forecast sunny from Friday) he must have a big chance. Betting observations A very interesting proposition, as there are highly plausible excuses for the two defeats in his last four races, and he comes here in the form of his life off a stunning last-time-out performance. On that basis 4/1 looks generous for the home side’s leading older horse.
AUGUSTE RODIN (Tr. A O’Brien) | Last 5 runs: 02152 | Draw: 8 of 14
Ultra-talented son of Deep Impact who has won eight of his 15 races, finishing runner-up on three other occasions (most recently last time out in the Irish Champion Stakes in mid-September behind Economics). Nothing not to like about that, but the problem with this four-year-old approaching his final career start before stud duties beckon is his bewildering habit of having “off days” – his four other performances have seen him trail home behind the winner by a collective total of more than 180 lengths. His appeal in the context of this race is further diminished by the likelihood of a strongly-run 12 furlongs given the mounting body of evidence that such a trip stretches his stamina in top company, for all that he won the Epsom Derby in June 2023. The choice of this race over the more speed-favouring Breeders Cup Turf in the US earlier this month (a race he won stylishly a year ago, and again run on fast turf under Californian sunshine) therefore looks a strange one, presumably driven mainly by breeding considerations.
Betting observations It seems rather harsh to knock a six-time G1 winner, but as a betting proposition he is often one to be wary of after a number of blowout defeats at short prices, particularly at 12 furlongs (well beaten in the three of his last four attempts at the distance). That said, he will be a bigger price on Sunday than for any other race he has contested. Not out of it, but no great appeal either.
GOLIATH (Tr. F-H Graffard) | Last 5 runs: 14211 | Draw: 1 of 14
[For our full analysis of Goliath’s chances in this race, see separate article]
Four-year old son of Adlerflug who showed no brilliance as a three-year old compared to those above him in the betting, but surged to the top of the global rankings of thoroughbreds in training this summer when dismantling a top-class field in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot (subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking two lengths behind in second, Sheema Classic and subsequent Breeders Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance a further three lengths back in third, Auguste Rodin among those well beaten). Was then put out to pasture for a while with this target in mind, returning in early October with a win on heavy ground in the G2 Prix du Conseil at Longchamp. Top-rated horse in the race on global rankings and arguably comes here as the one to beat, but that’s not reflected in the betting.
Betting observations There is a question mark over his first long-haul racing experience, but this German-bred gelding’s summer form looks as good as that of any middle-distance turf horse in training. With that in mind, 8/1 is much too big a price for him to prove that notion correct.
JUSTIN PALACE (Tr. H Sugiyama) | Last 5 runs: 24-404 | Draw: 4 of 14
Five-year-old son of Deep Impact with plenty of top-class middle-distance form over the last two years, including when not far behind superstar Equinox in both June and October 2023 (Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin, Autumn Tenno Sho at Tokyo). Restricted to just three outings this year: finished fourth of 12 behind Rebels Romance in the Sheema Classic back in March, a well-beaten 10th of 13 behind Below The Horn at Kyoto in June, and then a fast-finishing fourth of 15 behind Do Deuce last month in the Tenno Sho. That last run was particularly eye-catching, as unlike the winner – who had an uninterrupted run for the last three furlongs of the race – Haruki Sugiyama’s charge had something of a stop-start run in the home straight due to traffic. A lurking threat with a very obvious place chance at least.
Betting observations Justin Palace’s excellent form at Tokyo and his eye-catching run last time out in particular make him a genuine player, for all that he has a modest win rate. Priced about right now (was previously available at twice his current odds).
FANTASTIC MOON (Tr. S Steinberg) | Last 5 runs: 01210 | Draw: 13 of 14
Four-year-old son of Sea The Moon who has won seven of his 14 starts, having confirmed for the second year running that he is Germany’s top middle-distance horse with a win in the Grosser Preis von Baden in September. The key to this horse is the ground, with his record on good/soft or better reading 1110211, the “0” being a 6-length defeat (finished 11th of 16) in last year’s Arc de Triomphe, having previously won the G2 Prix Niel as a prep run. This year’s Arc attempt proved quite the drama, with connections deciding to withdraw him before the race due to incessant drizzle that turned the ground very soft, only to be told that they would be fined EUR 55,000 if they were to do so at that late stage. He therefore ran despite the unfavourable surface, and duly finished a well-beaten ninth of 16 (just over 9 lengths behind Bluestocking). With the ground set to be more favourable this coming Sunday it is quite conceivable that he could outrun his odds, but he has drawn very wide.
Betting observations Has been backed in from eye-catching prices (was offered at 40/1 briefly at one stage) to the point where he is now sixth in the betting. With those ahead of him having achieved more on the figures and a very wide draw he is probably priced about right now, but a bold showing would hardly come as a surprise.
STARS ON EARTH (Tr. M Takayanagi) | Last 5 runs: 23320 | Draw: 14 of 14
Five-year-old daughter of Duramente who first rose to prominence as a three-year-old, with a brace of G1 wins that included the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) in May 2022. Also impressed when returned to that 12-furlong trip in the autumn of 2023, finishing 3rd to Equinox in last year’s edition of this race (beaten five lengths, Do Deuce a further 0.75 lengths back in fourth), before finishing half a length behind the latter rival in the Arima Kinen over half a furlong further in December. However, plenty to prove after just one sole outing in 2024 (Sheema Classic at Meydan back in March), which saw her finish a lacklustre 8th of 12 (beaten 11 lengths) behind Rebel’s Romance. Drew the outside post.
Betting observations Would be very much in the mix for the places based on her 2022 and 2023 form (seven consecutive G1s, never finishing worse than third), but very worrying that she has only been seen on a racecourse once this year. No betting appeal on the back of that mediocre run, her longest ever layoff, and the widest draw of all for good measure.
SHIN EMPEROR (Tr. Y Yahagi) | Last 5 runs: 25330 | Draw: 7 of 14
Three-year-old son of Siyouni and full brother to Arc winner Sottsass. Solid third in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) back in May prompted connections to follow the pathway of his brilliant brother by attempting the Arc de Triomphe. That didn’t work out on very testing ground (fine for Sottsass but never previously encountered by Shin Emperor), but his prep run for that (3rd in Irish Champion Stakes, beaten just a length) looks very good form now, despite the winner’s no-show after bleeding in Ascot’s Champion Stakes. On that form he looks closely matched with Auguste Rodin and so he is a credible contender here, but difficult to gauge how much his travels will have taken out of him and while his Japanese G1 form is respectable (figures of 253) it still makes him an outsider in a race this deep.
Betting observations One of the very few horses in the field who could still be described as unexposed, and the promise he showed over ten furlongs at Leopardstown suggests this colt belongs in this company. Not out of this.
SOL ORIENS (Tr. T Tezuka) | Last 5 runs: 8-4728 | Draw: 12 of 14
Looked an emerging star on the Japanese middle-distance racing scene in his three-year-old career as he took the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas over 10 furlongs) in fine style at Nakayama in April 2023, before just missing out in the Japanese Derby over this trip a month later. However, his progression has not continued in seven races since (form figures: 2384727), the standout piece of form during this period being his second place to Blow The Horn in the Takarazuka Kinen at Kyoto in June. As that was on yielding ground (just like his 2,000 Guineas win), there has to be a big doubt over him reproducing it on faster ground here, and even then it’s not clear if that would suffice to get him a place.
Betting observations Best form over shorter and softer going than he is likely to encounter on Sunday. No betting appeal.
BLOW THE HORN (Tr. T Yoshioka) | Last 5 runs: 13210 | Draw: 2 of 14
A five-year-old who was slow to start his career, appearing just once as a three-year-old before taking a break of almost a year before his next sighting of a racecourse. Decent albeit limited form as a four-year old but has taken a huge step forward as a five-year-old this year, winning the G2 Nikkei Shinshun Hai in January (12 furlongs), finishing runner-up in the G1 Tenno Sho in April (two miles), and then putting up a huge performance to win the G1 Takarazuka Kinen in June (12 furlongs), all these performances coming at Kyoto racecourse. In the latter contest he comfortably saw off half of dozen rivals who reoppose here (including Do Deuce), but it remains to be seen whether the yielding turf that day flattered him. Finished last of eleven on his prep for this in early October (started as favourite), and with no reason found for that flop it’s difficult to know what to expect from Yoshioka’s charge as he sets foot on Tokyo racecourse for the first time.
Betting observations One of the wild cards in this field, as his win in the Takarazuka Kinen over many of these rivals was comprehensive. Big doubts after his dismal effort on his return after a break last month and faster ground again here, but he cannot be totally dismissed and 50/1 is very aggressive by William Hill (no more than 33s elsewhere at the time of writing).
DUREZZA (Tr. T Ozeki) | Last 5 runs: 11-205 | Draw: 10 of 14
Four-year-old son of Duramente who racked up a series of minor wins in his three-year-old season, finishing off with a dominant victory in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger) over 15 furlongs at Kyoto last October. However, he hasn’t threatened to get back to that level of form in three runs this year – runner-up (beaten five lengths) on seasonal reappearance in a G2 over ten furlongs in March, then 15th of 17 (beaten 33 lengths) in the Spring Tenno Sho in April, and finally finishing 5th of 13 in the International at York in August behind City of Troy (beaten 10 lengths). Very difficult to see how he can produce the best race of his life on Sunday after that campaign, but it's worth pointing out that he has two wins from two runs at Tokyo.
Betting observations Looks out of his depth on all but his marathon trip form, so no appeal at 401, despite his eye-catching course form.
DANON BELUGA (Tr. N Hori) | Last 5 runs: 44-630 | Draw: 6 of 14
Five-year-old son of Heart’s Cry who has been restricted to G1 or G2 contests ever since his debut in February 2022. Hasn’t won any of those but has consistently put up solid performances, most notably when placed two years running in the Dubai Turf at Meydan (on both occasions beaten just a length) in March 2023 and March 2024. Ran his worst race yet on 27 October when 14th of 15 behind Do Deuce (beaten 7 lengths) in the Tenno Sho over this racecourse, but had been off the track for 211 days so can perhaps be given a pass for that. However, there’s a big question mark hanging over the suitability of this 12-furlong trip (career finishing positions: 456), as all his best pieces of form have been recorded over shorter.
Betting observations Very little appeal as this trip is evidently not his best and he was unplaced in the last two editions of this race.
STRUVE (Tr. N Hori) | Last 5 runs: 7-1110 | Draw: 5 of 14
Steadily progressive son of King Kamehameha who hit peak form in the spring of this season when winning back-to-back G2 contests, namely the Nikkei Sho (Nakayama) and the Meguro Kinen (Tokyo), which took his lifetime record to five wins from ten runs and set him up for his first attempt at G1 level in June (Takarazuka Kinen). That didn’t go well at all, as he ended up finishing 13th of 15 behind Blow The Horn, beaten 15 lengths, but it’s possible the underfoot conditions that day were not to his liking (first try on ground softer than good). Given his record over 12/12.5 furlongs (11211) he shouldn’t be written off entirely on his second attempt at the highest level.
Betting observations With three consecutive victories over this kind of trip/ground prior to his flop over yielding ground over ten furlongs last time, there’s an argument to be made that the market is showing too much recency bias here. If four-place terms were to be offered he looks an interesting each-way play at a huge price.
KARATE (Tr. H Otonashi) | Last 5 runs: 00800 | Draw: 11 of 14
Eight-year-old son of To The Glory who has raced 43 times over the last six years, winning eight races and amassing a handsome amount of prize money. However, two victories at G3 level represent the pinnacle of his achievements, and he has been thrashed on almost all seven starts at the very highest level (the exception being a five-length 6th of 15 behind Equinox in the Autumn Tenno Sho of October 2022). All recent form is way short of the level required to even place here.
Betting observations Makes no appeal at any price.
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